Major changes are needed to reach the 2-degrees scenario in the Paris agreement. To meet this, many countries around the world are firmly committed to accelerate the deployment of renewable energy. These climate change concerns have, together with technological innovation and enabling policies, placed renewables at the centre of the global energy transformation. But preconditions vary between countries, and the same set of technology solutions are not optimal everywhere.

The REmap tool for identification of solutions
One way to find a such a suitable set of solutions for an individual country is to use the tool REmap developed by IRENA. The REmap technology option analysis is carried out at the sub-sector level for the entire world, with energy demand of each end-use sector disaggregated into the main energy-consuming applications. The purpose is to identify the most cost-effective solutions, and not to set targets. The results are communicated to a diverse audience, including policy makers, technology developers, academia and the general public.

The tool has some limitations. For instance, REmap looks at discrete time steps, focusing on 2030 and 2050. Further, the analysis does not consider aspects such as feedback in energy prices or dynamics across technologies. Despite these and other limitations, a comparison of the REmap results with the results of the IEA-ETSAP models at both national and global level has shown that for a number of countries and regions, the results are directly comparable to the REmap country results.

Solutions for a 2.0-scenario
Renewable energy and energy efficiency will play the largest roles for minimizing emissions of greenhouse gases. And for the world to stay on the 2ᵒC path, emissions from all sectors must be cut. In the REmap case, the power generation and building sectors would see the largest percentage reduction in emissions by 2050. In the combination of decarbonization of the electricity sector and hopefully the construction of new houses with high energy performance, heat pumps will play a crucial part in reaching the targets of the Paris agreement. They will then provide clean, reliable and cost-effective space and water heating.

Heat pumps can also play a role in the industry. Process heating with electricity, such as with heat pumps, can reduce the dependence on fossil fuel for industries. The REmap case anticipates that globally, large-scale heat pumps in industry could grow enormously until 2050, for example in the food industry, due to simultaneous need for heating and cooling. But in order to reach such a deployment, both for buildings and in industry, it is imperative that energy efficiency and renewable energy policies are co-ordinated to recognise the complementarity of heat pumps and support them by mitigating existing barriers to deployment.

Michael Taylor, IRENA (International Renewable Energy Agency)
The text is shortened by HPC

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